The Month in Review: Analyzing the Cryptocurrency Markets in November

Author: Dave Reiter Date: 28 Nov 2019

What happened to the dramatic rally in the crypto universe during the final few days of October? From 25-28 October, Bitcoin (BTC) enjoyed its most explosive three-day rally since 2011. Most crypto traders were convinced that this was the beginning of a bullish breakout. However, the rally quickly fizzled in the cryptocurrency markets in November. What happened?

Cryptocurrency Markets in November

Over the course of the next three weeks, BTC surrendered 100% of its gains from late-October (see Chart #1 below).

Currently (as of 27 November), Bitcoin is down 17.8% for the month.

It looks certain that all the major cryptocurrencies will finish the month of November in negative territory. DGTX was one of the only bright spots in the cryptocurrency markets in November. The Digitex native currency generated a healthy gain of 21.0%.

The crypto universe needs some type of catalyst to initiate a new bull market. Most likely, traders will have to wait for 2020 until the next bull market is unleashed. In the meantime, we can expect cryptocurrencies to trade sideways-to-lower.        

     

Should the Crypto Community Be Concerned About the Recent Price Behavior?

In late-October, BTC produced its most spectacular rally in over eight years. The cryptocurrency advanced $2,880 in less than 3 days.

Unfortunately for the crypto bulls, the rally faded rather quickly. As we enter the final few days of the cryptocurrency markets in November, Bitcoin is trading near its lowest level in over six months (see chart #2 below).

Should traders be concerned about the recent price action in the crypto universe? Let’s explore the details.

For the past six months, BTC has been in a classic bear market. As you can see from Chart #3, Bitcoin has generated a series of lower highs.

This is a textbook definition of a bear market. Officially, BTC has been in a bear market since recording its all-time high on 18 December 2017.

The bear market will continue until a new high is recorded above 19,862. Therefore, Bitcoin is approaching its two-year bear market anniversary.

Admittedly, the current cryptocurrency bear market has been rather painful for the entire crypto community. However, bear markets of this magnitude are not uncommon in the world of cryptocurrencies.

In order to properly analyze the current bear market, let’s review the prior Bitcoin bear market. Perhaps this will provide us with a clue in regard to how long the current bear market will last.

The prior BTC bear market began on 29 November 2013, following a substantial rally throughout 2012 and 2013. The price peak occurred @ 1,135. Bitcoin proceeded to decline for the next 14 months, finally hitting bottom @ 172 on 14 January 2015.

In percentage terms, BTC dropped 84.8%.

This marked one of the most brutal declines in Bitcoin’s young history. Many crypto traders were convinced that BTC would never recover. They were wrong.

Officially, the next Bitcoin bull market began on 14 January 2015. However, it took almost two years for BTC to exceed its old high from November 2013. Officially, the old high was penetrated on 5 January 2017 (see chart #4 below).

As we all know, the entire cryptocurrency universe experienced an incredible bull market advance for the next 12 months. BTC reached its peak @ 19,862 on 18 December 2017. The percentage increase from 2015 through 2017 equaled 11,448%.    

Let’s compare the price activity from 2013 through 2017, against today’s price activity as we approach 2020. Of course, we can all agree that the bull market officially ended on 18 December 2017.

Arguably, most traders in the crypto community will agree that the Bitcoin bear market ended on 17 December 2018 @ 3,158 (see chart #5 below).

If this analysis is correct, it means that the BTC bear market lasted exactly 12 months. It also means that we are 11 months into a new bull market. As long as BTC stays above 3,158, this is a valid forecast.

Where do we go from here based on this analysis and looking at the cryptocurrency markets in November? Based on the price activity from 2013 through 2017, Bitcoin should produce a new all-time high in November 2020.

BTC should also continue to grind its way higher for the next 11 months, reaching an ultimate top in October 2021. A new bear market will begin in October 2021. Please remember, though, if Bitcoin drops below 3,158, this forecast is completely wrong.

At least for now, we can assume that the crypto universe is in a bull market. We should see rising prices for the next 23 months. Without question, the next two years are shaping up to be extremely important to the future long-term direction of cryptocurrencies.            

DGTX Has Easily Outperformed Bitcoin Since Its 2018 ICO

Admittedly, Digitex has endured a few stumbles along the way during the past two years. Of course, this is perfectly normal for a startup company like Digitex. Despite the setbacks, the Digitex native currency (DGTX) has been one of the best performing tokens since its ICO on 15 January 2018.

In fact, DGTX has easily outperformed the most popular of all cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin. The ICO price for DGTX was 0.0100. The current DGTX price is 0.0501. This represents a price increase of 401.0%. During the same time period, the price of Bitcoin has declined by 45.9%.

Therefore, DGTX has outperformed BTC by an amazing 446.9% during the past 22 months!

Why has DGTX performed so well? Because Digitex is providing a product that the futures industry has been unwilling to offer its clients for the past 171 years! The product is commission-free trading. Digitex is on the verge of revolutionizing the futures industry. The company has the opportunity to capture an enormous amount of crypto futures market share following the mainnet launch in 2020. Exciting days lie ahead at Digitex!                  

Digitex Futures writers and/or guest authors may or may not have a vested interest in the Digitex Futures project and/or other businesses mentioned throughout the site. None of the content on Digitex Futures is investment advice nor is it a replacement for advice from a certified financial planner.