Historical Futures Prices: The Relationship Between BTC and DGTX
October 31, 2018, marked the 10th anniversary of Bitcoin. Exactly one decade earlier, Satoshi Nakamoto released his white paper outlining a peer-to-peer version of electronic cash, which became known as Bitcoin. Two months later, on January 3, 2009, Nakamoto mined the first block of bitcoins, which became known in the crypto community as the Genesis Block.
Today, Bitcoin is becoming a thriving new asset class within the investment community. However, the cryptocurrency has certainly experienced a few rough patches along the way.
Let’s examine the price of Bitcoin from a historical perspective in order to possibly determine the beginning of the next bull market across the entire cryptocurrency universe. If you find data on historical futures prices useful, please review the following table.
Since its inception in 2009, BTC has experienced five major declines of greater than 50%. This includes the most recent decline of 82%. Each brutal price decline was eventually followed by a new all-time historic high. Based on this information, Bitcoin will eventually exceed its high from December 18, 2017.
Of course, the most important question when considering historical futures prices is: “Did BTC generate an important bottom on November 26?" The best way to answer this question is to examine the previous data.
In percentage terms, Bitcoin’s average price decline is 74.8%. Therefore, the current price decline has exceeded the average decline by 7.3%. Based on this information, Bitcoin is probably very close to its final bottom.
However, we must remember that BTC fell by 92.4% in 2011. Consequently, it is possible for Bitcoin to collapse down to $1,509 value. From a liquidity standpoint, it seems rather unlikely that the price will fall to $1,509. Bitcoin has exponentially more volume today than it did in 2011. Therefore, it would be very difficult to push the price down to $1,509. It’s certainly possible but not likely.
How long will it take for BTC to generate a new high above $19,862? According to the historical data, it takes Bitcoin 651 days to record a new all-time high (after falling by at least 50%).
Therefore, we can conclude that Bitcoin will form a new high in February 2020. Clearly, this is purely speculation. It’s impossible to forecast Bitcoin’s next big price move. However, historical research suggests a new high will occur within the first few months of 2020.
How Will Bitcoin Affect DGTX?
Whether we like it or not, Bitcoin influences all other cryptocurrencies and altcoins. Bitcoin is the leader of the crypto universe. According to data provided by CoinMarketCap, there are 2,076 cryptocurrencies traded across 227 different exchanges.
It’s not uncommon to see $20 billion in daily trading volume among all actively traded coins and tokens. On a typical day, Bitcoin represents approximately 53% of the total volume. Therefore, Bitcoin certainly influences the other cryptocurrencies.
Currently, Bitcoin finds itself in a bear market. Therefore, we should expect other tokens to also be in a bear market. This is precisely what we are experiencing with the DGTX token. The Digitex coin price reached its peak on October 14 @ $0.1606. The price of the token has been dropping for the past six weeks, along with the price of BTC.
Of course, we all want to know when DGTX will form an important bottom and launch into a new bull market. Obviously, it’s impossible to provide an accurate answer. However, DGTX will probably generate an important bottom within the same time frame as Bitcoin. Don’t be surprised if DGTX hits bottom along with the price of BTC.
There is one catalyst which could send the Digitex coin price much higher independent of Bitcoin’s price. I’m referring to the launch of the Digitex Futures exchange in Q1 2019. This is a newsworthy event specific only to the DGTX token. As a result, DGTX could begin to move higher following the opening of the exchange regardless of Bitcoin’s price level.
Obviously, nobody likes to experience a bear market. However, they are a normal part of the investment cycle. The best course of action is to remain patient while the bear market eventually turns into another roaring bull market. Despite the recent decline in the Digitex coin price, the future looks bright for Digitex Futures. The launch date is fast approaching!
Personally, I think many crypto traders and investors were rather surprised by the recent sharp decline in Bitcoin. Many people in the cryptocurrency community became rather complacent in 2017, expecting the price of Bitcoin to move straight up for the next several years.
Unfortunately, speculative markets simply don’t work that way, as anyone who had studied historical futures prices knows. There will always be sharp declines along the way, very similar to what we’re experiencing right now with Bitcoin and other tokens. However, this bear market will end and another bull market will rise from the ashes.
Based on my analysis, I believe the entire digital asset universe is in a multi-year secular bull market which could extend into the 2030s. This includes cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, smart contracts and tokenization of traditional asset classes.
This entire transformation process could easily take 20 years to unfold. There will be many bull markets and bear markets along the way. In fact, I would not be surprised if the current bear market continued slightly longer than most traders are currently anticipating. Please remain patient. Eventually, the bear market will transform into a new bull market. We are in the very early stages of this new digital asset cycle. We're living in exciting times!
Digitex Futures writers and/or guest authors may or may not have a vested interest in the Digitex Futures project and/or other businesses mentioned throughout the site. None of the content on Digitex Futures is investment advice nor is it a replacement for advice from a certified financial planner.